Newsletter No. 173
Good afternoon,
This week’s energy headlines show just how connected the global market is. Oil prices moved higher as tensions with Iran raised new concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for the world’s oil shipments. At the same time, millions of barrels of Iranian oil are now sitting on tankers with fewer places to go as U.S. sanctions return.
Other parts of the market are shifting too. Venezuela is starting to attract more attention as companies look for new oil supply, while ADNOC’s expanded partnership with Japan’s Mitsui shows how countries are working to secure long-term energy deals. Here in Texas, the growth of AI data centers is also creating more demand for land, power, and energy infrastructure.
In this week’s issue of The Upside, I’m covering the latest move in oil prices, Iranian oil stuck at sea, Venezuela’s oil comeback, ADNOC’s growing LNG and trading strategy, and how AI data centers are changing the energy picture in West Texas. I’ll also share what’s happening at King and feature a new episode of The Jay Young Show.
This Week's Headlines
Oil and Gas News
- Oil Prices Ease, but Hormuz Risk Keeps Markets on Edge
- West Texas Cashes In on the AI Boom
- Millions of Iranian Oil Barrels Stuck at Sea
What's Happening at King
- The Jay Young Show: Dan Steffens on WTI, Brent, Natural Gas & U.S. Energy Supply
- Don't Miss an Episode of the Oil & Gas Rundown LIVE!
Energy Market Perspective
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ADNOC Deepens Asia Energy Ties as LNG Competition Heats Up
Move to Watch
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Vitol Looks to Grow in Venezuela’s Oil Comeback
Oil and Gas News
Oil Prices Ease, but Hormuz Risk Keeps Markets on Edge
Oil prices initially jumped after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran “over,” following attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz and renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. But today, crude has eased slightly as traders weigh whether this is a temporary flare-up or the start of a longer disruption.
The bigger issue is not just the one-day price move. It is the risk behind it. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil chokepoints in the world, and any threat to tanker traffic can quickly add a fear premium to crude prices. Brent crude moved close to $79 earlier, while WTI climbed above $75, before both pulled back Thursday.
Markets are also focused on how limited the U.S. safety cushion has become. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is around its lowest level since 1983, which means the U.S. has less emergency backup if a prolonged conflict disrupts global supply. Tanker traffic, insurance costs, and Asian refinery sourcing are all becoming part of the story because this is no longer just about oil in the ground. It is about whether oil can move safely through the global system.
West Texas Cashes In on the AI Boom
West Texas ranchland near Abilene is becoming more valuable because big tech companies need land and power for AI data centers. Companies like OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and Microsoft are building or planning huge projects there because the area already has wind power, transmission lines, and cheap open land.
This could bring a lot of money to ranchers, landowners, and the city through leases, land sales, and tax revenue. But there is also risk. Some projects may never actually get built, and land prices may be rising based more on big promises than finished developments.
The big question is whether this AI boom will create long-term value for West Texas, or whether it will become another boom-and-bust cycle where land prices rise fast and then fall if the industry slows down.
Millions of Iranian Oil Barrels Stuck at Sea
About 63 million barrels of Iranian crude are reportedly stuck on tankers after the U.S. ended a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil without penalties. Iran had rushed to move oil out of the Gulf after a temporary pause in the U.S. blockade, but renewed tensions and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have put those shipments at risk.
China remains Iran’s main buyer, while other Asian buyers are likely backing away because sanctions are back in place. If the blockade resumes, Iran could be left with tens of millions of barrels of crude and refined products floating at sea with few places to go.
Happening at King
The Jay Young Show: Dan Steffens on WTI, Brent, Natural Gas & U.S. Energy Supply
On this episode of The Jay Young Show, my guest co-host Rachel Griffith and I had the opportunity to sit down with Dan Steffens, President of Energy Prospectus Group, to break down why oil prices are lower than expected, and why they could move higher quickly.
Dan explains the factors impacting WTI and Brent oil prices, including China’s inventory moves, the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. oil inventories, refinery capacity, Cushing storage levels, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the difference between the paper oil market and the physical oil market.
Don't Miss an Episode of Oil & Gas Rundown LIVE
Join us live every Wednesday at 2 p.m. CT for Oil & Gas Rundown LIVE, where we break down the latest headlines, market moves, and industry developments shaping oil and gas in real time. It’s a chance to stay current on up-to-the-minute energy news, hear sharp insights on what matters most, and get a clearer view of where the market may be headed. Whether you follow the industry closely or just want a smart, timely update each week, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.
YouTube: @JayRYoungOfficial
LinkedIn: jayr-young
Energy Market Perspective
ADNOC Deepens Asia Energy Ties as LNG Competition Heats Up
ADNOC’s expanded partnership with Japan’s Mitsui is another sign that global energy players are positioning for a more competitive LNG and trading market. The agreement covers LNG, crude oil, sulfur, shipping, chemicals, and lower-carbon fuels, showing how major producers are moving beyond simple supply deals and building broader commercial partnerships across the full energy value chain.
For Japan, the deal strengthens long-term energy security with a key supplier. ADNOC already provides about one-third of Japan’s crude oil imports, and deeper cooperation with Mitsui could help secure future LNG and crude flows at a time when Asian buyers are watching supply risks closely.
For ADNOC, the partnership supports its push to become a larger global gas and trading player. The company recently launched an integrated LNG marketing and trading platform and is targeting a 47 million metric ton annual LNG portfolio by 2035. Partnering with Mitsui gives ADNOC stronger access to Asian markets, shipping networks, and long-term demand growth.
The bigger market takeaway is that LNG is becoming more strategic, not less. As demand grows in Asia and supply disruptions remain a concern, companies are locking in relationships that can help manage price volatility, supply security, and future investment opportunities.
Move to Watch
Vitol Looks to Grow in Venezuela’s Oil Comeback
Vitol is looking to expand its presence in Venezuela as global interest returns to the country’s oil industry. The company is already helping export Venezuelan crude after a U.S.-backed deal opened the door for more oil sales.
Venezuela’s exports have risen to their highest level since 2019, with the U.S., India, Europe, and potentially China buying more barrels. While the country’s production is still far below past highs, renewed investment and disrupted Middle East supply could help Venezuela grow its oil output again.
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All the best,
Jay
