American Energy: A Key to Supply Security

by Jay Young | Investing, Oil & Gas, Tax Savings, Taxes, The Upside

Newsletter No. 166

Good afternoon,

This week’s energy headlines all point to the same theme: U.S. shale is proving its importance. With global supply disruptions putting pressure on markets, American production remains a critical source of stability. U.S. oil output is holding near 13.7 million barrels per day and crude exports continue to show strong global demand for reliable American barrels.

This is a reminder that energy exposure can play an important role in conversations around diversification, inflation sensitivity, real assets and supply security. When global markets tighten, domestic oil and gas production becomes more valuable.

In this week’s issue of The Upside, I look at why U.S. shale matters, why reliable domestic production remains essential and why private energy opportunities may deserve renewed attention in today’s market environment.


This Week's Headlines

Oil and Gas News

  • Strong Oil Prices Support U.S. Producers
  • U.S. Shale Remains Critical to Global Supply
  • U.S. Crude Exports Remain Strong

  • U.S. Natural Gas Production and LNG Export Capacity Continue to Climb

Energy Market Perspective

  • U.S. Shale Remains a Strategic Supply Advantage

  • Ask the "Tax Guy"

What's Happening at King

Move to Watch

  • NextEra Nears Shale JV with Quantum to Grow U.S. Production

   

Oil and Gas News

Strong Oil Prices Support U.S. Producers
Oil prices remain in a favorable range for domestic producers, with WTI trading around $100 per barrel and Brent around $106–$107 per barrel. Even after pulling back, prices are still elevated enough to support U.S. upstream activity, strengthen producer cash flow, and reinforce the value of reliable American oil supply.

U.S. Shale Remains Critical to Global Supply
Global supply disruptions are putting a spotlight back on U.S. shale. With U.S. oil production around 13.7 million barrels per day and crude exports reaching record levels, American producers continue to play a key role in meeting global energy demand. The story reinforces why domestic shale remains essential for energy security, supply stability, and global market balance.

U.S. Crude Exports Strong
New EIA data shows U.S. crude oil exports climbed to about 5.5 million barrels per day, up sharply from the prior week. For American producers, that is a strong signal that global markets continue to rely on U.S. barrels, especially during periods of international supply uncertainty.

U.S. Natural Gas Production and LNG Export Capacity Continue to Climb
The EIA expects Lower 48 natural gas production to keep rising, averaging 118.9 Bcf/d in 2026 and 124.0 Bcf/d in 2027, supported by higher crude oil prices and growing associated gas production from the Permian. The Permian is expected to lead growth, despite recent pipeline constraints and weak Waha Hub prices.

Natural gas storage ended winter slightly above the five-year average, helping ease price volatility. Henry Hub prices are forecast to average about $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.18/MMBtu in 2027.

On the export side, U.S. LNG capacity continues to expand, with Golden Pass LNG shipping its first cargo and Corpus Christi Stage 3 adding new capacity. EIA forecasts U.S. LNG exports to average 17.0 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.2 Bcf/d in 2027, reinforcing the growing role of U.S. natural gas in global energy markets.

Energy Market Perspective

U.S. Shale Remains a Strategic Supply Advantage
Global supply disruptions are once again highlighting the importance of U.S. shale. With U.S. oil production around 13.7 million barrels per day and crude exports reaching strong levels, American producers continue to play a key role in helping stabilize global energy supply.

For RIAs and advisors, the takeaway is clear: energy remains an important part of the broader market conversation. U.S. shale offers exposure to a sector tied to global demand, supply security, inflation sensitivity, and commodity price movements.

As clients look for opportunities beyond traditional equities and fixed income, domestic oil and gas may deserve renewed attention. The current environment reinforces the value of reliable U.S. production, disciplined operators, and energy assets that can benefit when global supply becomes constrained.

U.S. shale is not just a production story, it is a market resilience story. For investors seeking diversification, income potential, and exposure to real assets, oil and gas can remain a meaningful part of the portfolio discussion.

Ask the "Tax Guy"

This week, we want our EVP of Tax, Rex Gifford, to break down a more technical but important topic for oil and gas investors: How intangible drilling costs can impact alternative minimum tax calculations. Specifically, we’ll look at Form 6251, line 2t, and discuss when excess intangible drilling costs may become a tax preference item.

Q. For alternative minimum tax purposes, Form 6251, line 2t; assuming intangible drilling costs are being claimed as a current year deduction, describe the consequences and computation of excess intangible drilling costs becoming a tax preference item to be reported on line 2t.

A: Form 6251 is the IRS form titled Alternative Minimum Tax—Individuals. The Alternative Minimum Tax (“AMT”) is a parallel tax system designed to ensure that higher-income taxpayers with significant economic income pay a minimum level of federal income tax. It limits or disallows many deductions, exclusions, and tax preferences that are allowed under the regular income tax system (e.g., certain itemized deductions, accelerated depreciation, incentive stock option spreads, and tax-exempt interest from private activity bonds). Form 6251 recalculates taxable income under AMT rules to arrive at Alternative Minimum Taxable Income (“AMTI”). It then applies AMT exemption amounts (which phase out at higher income levels), computes tax at AMT rates (generally 26% or 28%), and compares the result (Tentative Minimum Tax) to the taxpayer’s regular tax liability. The taxpayer generally owes the higher of the two amounts. The excess (if any) is the AMT owed for the year.

Excerpt of Form 6251
Screenshot 2026-05-21 at 2.37.07 PMThe primary current year deduction generated by admission to a oil and gas drilling fund is intangible drilling costs (“IDCs”).As a reminder, IDCs are expenses for items with no salvage value in oil, gas, or geothermal well drilling/development (e.g., labor, chemicals, mud). Under IRC Section 263(c), taxpayers (generally non-integrated producers) can elect to deduct them currently for regular tax purposes rather than capitalize and amortize them. The election to amortize the IDCs is on a straight line basis over a sixty month period pursuant to the provisions of IRC Section 59 (e). Do not make this adjustment for costs where you elected the optional 60-month write-off under § 59(e) for regular tax (this avoids the preference entirely).

For individuals currently deducting IDCs, the IDCs could become a tax preference item for the purposes of computing AMTI. This excess IDC amount would be included on Form 6251 line 2t. Per the Form 6251 instructions, the computation is made as follows:

    • Compute the IDC preference as if the exception did not apply.
    • Complete Form 6251 through line 3 (including that preference; treat certain other lines as zero if specified).
    • If the preference amount exceeds 40% of the total of lines 1–3 (as computed), enter only the excess on line 2t.
    • Otherwise, enter zero on line 2t (full benefit of the exception).

IRC Section 613A created an exemption for independent producers and royalty owners. For independent producers, this exemption, generally avoids this IDC preference add-back. Large amounts of other alternative minimum tax preference items could trigger the requirement to include excess IDCs on Form 6251 line 2t.

The response to this week’s question is very technical in nature. This question was selected for the purpose of identifying possible consequences should proper planning and potential modeling not be considered when electing to participate in an oil and gas drilling offering.

Have a tax question you’d like covered in a future issue? Email it to theupside@kingoperating.com.

DISCLOSURE: For educational purposes only. Not tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult your tax professional before making any investment or tax-related decisions

 

Happening at King

On the Latest Episode of The Jay Young Show: Purpose, Portfolios & the Oil Market
In this week's episode of The Jay Young Show, my co-host Jordan Soto and I talk with investment strategist Rob Haworth to discuss today’s market environment, oil prices, inflation, interest rates, energy exposure and how investors can think about opportunity and risk.

Watch it on LinkedIn, Rumble and YouTube (@JayRYoungOfficial).

Screenshot 2026-05-13 at 2.47.24 PM

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YouTube: @JayRYoungOfficial

LinkedIn: jayr-young

 

Move to Watch

NextEra Nears Shale JV with Quantum to Grow U.S. Production
NextEra Energy Resources is reportedly finalizing a joint venture with Quantum Capital Group to operate its U.S. upstream shale assets in the Haynesville, Eagle Ford, and Midcontinent basins. Under the expected deal, Quantum would operate the assets while NextEra retains an ownership stake.

The JV is expected to bring fresh capital into the portfolio and support production growth across the asset base. For U.S. producers, the story highlights continued investor interest in domestic shale, especially as natural gas demand grows alongside power needs, electrification, LNG exports, and AI-driven energy demand.

    

Have questions about oil and gas, alternative investing or tax strategies in oil and gas? Please include your question on the form and we will do our best to get them answered in a weekly market update.
   

If you'd like to talk to someone about King and are an accredited investor, you can fill out your information here or schedule a Zoom conversation with one of our SVPs here and someone will reach out.

 

Thank you for your continued support, and if you have any questions for myself or any member of the King team, please don't hesitate to reach out to us.
 

All the best,
Jay


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