Oil Could Hit $75–$130 on Iran Conflict

by Jay Young | Investing, Oil & Gas, Tax Savings, Taxes, The Upside

Newsletter No. 121

Good afternoon,

It’s Thursday, June 19, 2025. In this edition of The Upside, we’ll cover the latest news from the oil and gas industry, along with important updates from King.

As always, my goal is to keep you informed on the trends shaping our industry. Thanks for reading.

This Week's Headlines

  • Energy in Transition: Why U.S. Oil & Gas Is Poised to Lead on The Jay Young Show
  • AI Fuels Smarter, Safer, and Greener Future for U.S. Oil and Gas
  • Oil Could Hit $75–$130 on Iran Conflict  
  • Senate GOP Proposes $1B Tax Break for Oil and Gas in Trump Fiscal Plan
  • Rising WTI Prices from Strait of Hormuz Tensions Boost U.S. Oil Producers
  • Natural Gas Prices Surge on Iran War Fears, But Outlook Remains Uncertain

  • Mitsubishi Reportedly Eyes $8B Deal for Aethon’s Haynesville Gas Assets

Happening at King

Energy in Transition: Why U.S. Oil & Gas Is Poised to Lead on The Jay Young Show
In the latest episode of The Jay Young Show, my co-host Jordan Soto and I unpack the global forces reshaping oil and gas markets. We explore how Middle East tensions, OPEC+ production shortfalls, and the EU’s planned exit from Russian gas are creating both volatility and opportunity. The conversation highlights why U.S. shale and LNG exports are becoming increasingly vital—and how American producers are positioned to lead amid global supply disruptions. You can watch the episode below or on YouTube at The Jay Young Show.

AI Fuels Smarter, Safer, and Greener Future for U.S. Oil and Gas
In my most recent Forbes' blog, I highlight how artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the U.S. oil and gas industry by enhancing efficiency, safety, and sustainability. From predictive maintenance that prevents costly breakdowns to real-time optimization of drilling and production, AI helps companies reduce operating costs and environmental impact. Advanced algorithms also enable more precise exploration, minimizing wasteful drilling. According to Todd Garner, CEO of PINN-AI, AI is not replacing human expertise but amplifying it—empowering engineers and geologists with faster, smarter decision-making tools. As the industry becomes more data-driven, AI is key to making oil and gas operations cleaner, leaner, and more competitive. Read the full blog here.

Oil and Gas News

Oil Could Hit $75–$130 on Iran Conflict 
Citi says oil prices could rise to $75–$78 a barrel if tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a drop in Iranian oil exports. Other banks are even more bullish — JPMorgan warns prices could jump to $120–$130 if the conflict spreads. Goldman Sachs and Barclays also expect oil to stay elevated due to growing geopolitical risk, with prices potentially rising above $100 in a worst-case scenario.

Senate GOP Proposes $1B Tax Break for Oil and Gas in Trump Fiscal Plan
Senate Republicans have added a $1 billion tax break for oil and gas producers to their version of President Trump’s fiscal plan. The proposal would let energy companies deduct certain drilling costs when calculating taxes, helping those affected by the 15% corporate minimum tax. Backed by firms like ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy, the measure mirrors a bill by Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma. Critics, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, call it a giveaway to the fossil fuel industry, while supporters argue it supports domestic energy production and jobs.

Rising WTI Prices from Strait of Hormuz Tensions Boost U.S. Oil Producers
Potential disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz are expected to push up global oil prices, including WTI, benefiting U.S. oil and gas producers. As a net exporter with flexible shale production, the U.S. can capitalize on higher prices through increased output and profits. While consumers may face higher fuel costs, elevated prices offer a positive outlook for domestic producers amid rising market volatility.

Natural Gas Prices Surge on Iran War Fears, But Outlook Remains Uncertain
Natural gas prices jumped above $4 as concerns over the Iran conflict threaten supply, even though this time of year is usually less bullish. Experts warn the market is highly volatile and driven by short-term speculation, noting that a peace breakthrough could quickly reverse gains and reduce demand. Traders are advised to stay cautious given how quickly news can impact the fragile natural gas market.

   

Moves to Watch

Mitsubishi Reportedly Eyes $8B Deal for Aethon’s Haynesville Gas Assets
Japan’s Mitsubishi is in talks to buy Aethon Energy’s natural gas operations in the Haynesville Shale—located in Louisiana and East Texas—for around $8 billion, according to media reports. Aethon is one of the largest gas producers in the area, which is important for supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the Gulf Coast.

If completed, this would be Mitsubishi’s first big move into U.S. gas production, although it already invests in LNG projects like Cameron LNG in Louisiana. Interest from foreign companies in U.S. shale is growing, especially from Asian and Middle Eastern buyers looking to secure gas for export as global demand rises.

If you'd like to talk to someone about King and are an accredited investor, you can fill out your information here or schedule a Zoom conversation with one of our SVPs here and someone will reach out.

 

Thank you for your continued support, and if you have any questions for myself or any member of the King team, please don't hesitate to reach out to us.

All the best,
Jay

15301 Dallas Parkway, Suite 900
Addison, TX 75001

(214) 420-3000

Oil Could Hit $75–$130 on Iran Conflict

by Jay Young | Investing, Oil & Gas, Tax Savings, Taxes, The Upside

Newsletter No. 121

Good afternoon,

It’s Thursday, June 19, 2025. In this edition of The Upside, we’ll cover the latest news from the oil and gas industry, along with important updates from King.

As always, my goal is to keep you informed on the trends shaping our industry. Thanks for reading.

This Week's Headlines

  • Energy in Transition: Why U.S. Oil & Gas Is Poised to Lead on The Jay Young Show
  • AI Fuels Smarter, Safer, and Greener Future for U.S. Oil and Gas
  • Oil Could Hit $75–$130 on Iran Conflict  
  • Senate GOP Proposes $1B Tax Break for Oil and Gas in Trump Fiscal Plan
  • Rising WTI Prices from Strait of Hormuz Tensions Boost U.S. Oil Producers
  • Natural Gas Prices Surge on Iran War Fears, But Outlook Remains Uncertain

  • Mitsubishi Reportedly Eyes $8B Deal for Aethon’s Haynesville Gas Assets

Happening at King

Energy in Transition: Why U.S. Oil & Gas Is Poised to Lead on The Jay Young Show
In the latest episode of The Jay Young Show, my co-host Jordan Soto and I unpack the global forces reshaping oil and gas markets. We explore how Middle East tensions, OPEC+ production shortfalls, and the EU’s planned exit from Russian gas are creating both volatility and opportunity. The conversation highlights why U.S. shale and LNG exports are becoming increasingly vital—and how American producers are positioned to lead amid global supply disruptions. You can watch the episode below or on YouTube at The Jay Young Show.

AI Fuels Smarter, Safer, and Greener Future for U.S. Oil and Gas
In my most recent Forbes' blog, I highlight how artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the U.S. oil and gas industry by enhancing efficiency, safety, and sustainability. From predictive maintenance that prevents costly breakdowns to real-time optimization of drilling and production, AI helps companies reduce operating costs and environmental impact. Advanced algorithms also enable more precise exploration, minimizing wasteful drilling. According to Todd Garner, CEO of PINN-AI, AI is not replacing human expertise but amplifying it—empowering engineers and geologists with faster, smarter decision-making tools. As the industry becomes more data-driven, AI is key to making oil and gas operations cleaner, leaner, and more competitive. Read the full blog here.

Oil and Gas News

Oil Could Hit $75–$130 on Iran Conflict 
Citi says oil prices could rise to $75–$78 a barrel if tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a drop in Iranian oil exports. Other banks are even more bullish — JPMorgan warns prices could jump to $120–$130 if the conflict spreads. Goldman Sachs and Barclays also expect oil to stay elevated due to growing geopolitical risk, with prices potentially rising above $100 in a worst-case scenario.

Senate GOP Proposes $1B Tax Break for Oil and Gas in Trump Fiscal Plan
Senate Republicans have added a $1 billion tax break for oil and gas producers to their version of President Trump’s fiscal plan. The proposal would let energy companies deduct certain drilling costs when calculating taxes, helping those affected by the 15% corporate minimum tax. Backed by firms like ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy, the measure mirrors a bill by Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma. Critics, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, call it a giveaway to the fossil fuel industry, while supporters argue it supports domestic energy production and jobs.

Rising WTI Prices from Strait of Hormuz Tensions Boost U.S. Oil Producers
Potential disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz are expected to push up global oil prices, including WTI, benefiting U.S. oil and gas producers. As a net exporter with flexible shale production, the U.S. can capitalize on higher prices through increased output and profits. While consumers may face higher fuel costs, elevated prices offer a positive outlook for domestic producers amid rising market volatility.

Natural Gas Prices Surge on Iran War Fears, But Outlook Remains Uncertain
Natural gas prices jumped above $4 as concerns over the Iran conflict threaten supply, even though this time of year is usually less bullish. Experts warn the market is highly volatile and driven by short-term speculation, noting that a peace breakthrough could quickly reverse gains and reduce demand. Traders are advised to stay cautious given how quickly news can impact the fragile natural gas market.

   

Moves to Watch

Mitsubishi Reportedly Eyes $8B Deal for Aethon’s Haynesville Gas Assets
Japan’s Mitsubishi is in talks to buy Aethon Energy’s natural gas operations in the Haynesville Shale—located in Louisiana and East Texas—for around $8 billion, according to media reports. Aethon is one of the largest gas producers in the area, which is important for supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the Gulf Coast.

If completed, this would be Mitsubishi’s first big move into U.S. gas production, although it already invests in LNG projects like Cameron LNG in Louisiana. Interest from foreign companies in U.S. shale is growing, especially from Asian and Middle Eastern buyers looking to secure gas for export as global demand rises.

If you'd like to talk to someone about King and are an accredited investor, you can fill out your information here or schedule a Zoom conversation with one of our SVPs here and someone will reach out.

 

Thank you for your continued support, and if you have any questions for myself or any member of the King team, please don't hesitate to reach out to us.

All the best,
Jay